BY BILL STEELE
The photo is representative of what has and is transpiring in Marion County in the horse industry and while it addresses the eye as a photo, it should address the mind as to what is really happening in our horse world!

Many farms are having to cut corners just to keep the mortgage current.

Many folks are living on the property only because they have not been asked to leave by the bank, even though they are months behind on the mortgage. Banks would rather have the property occupied than vacant, they do not want to be in the business of mowing and maintaining fences. For many it is too late, but for the survivors the next few months will decide a lot and for some there is optimism, but is it realistic?

In the thoroughbred business, there are indicators that let us know what kind of financial weather is coming and mares and foals are part of those indicators. The steady melt down on mare and foal numbers means that stallion sheds will be pressed to get a “fair share” of breedings this year. The weather in Florida will always be the attraction for training horses along with the minerals that are so bountiful in the water, but could the numbers be sounding the “Death Knell” for the breeding side of the barn?

Some are forecasting that Florida bred foal numbers will drop even more in 2012. For discussion, let’s go with the same amount of foals in 2012 as there was in 2011 (1,565). Now look at the number of stallions in Florida that will produce those foals. If there are 80 stallions advertised in the Florida Horse Stallion Register (and some stallions will not be in the book), it would mean that somebody will be hurting in the finance column.

Whether a person wants to argue the numbers above, which are based on speculation, you cannot argue with the ones that follow. The biggest question, of course, is “Are there enough mares?”

Each year of late, the Florida Horse Stallion Register shrinks, but this year it could be bigger than last year I am told. Credit must be given to those farms that are charging on with more than robust stallion rosters and one has to admire their tenacity. Journeyman Stud has 14 stallions on its roster while Stonewall Farm has 17 stallions and these two top the list in numbers. Some farms have trimmed their rosters while most have maintained the same numbers as last year.

If we take the top six stallions, there will be six to seven hundred mares/foals accounted for, leaving the remaining 74 stallions to fight for the 900 remaining mares/live foals. No matter which way you cut it, there will be a shortage of Florida bred racing prospects in the next year or two. There will also be stallions leaving for lack of support, stallion owners expect profit from their stallions and other states are knocking at their doors with bigger chests of wealth than Florida has to offer. If the stallion exodus begins due to lack of mares, it will be hard to stop.

Journeyman has been a springboard for stallions mostly because of Brent Fernung’s keen eye for stallion talent. While Fernung has had his detractors, has been outspoken and controversial to the FTBOA membership, and has been chastised in this column on other subjects, he deserves credit for what he has done. I am not going to list the stallions that have passed through his hands on their way to greater accomplishments because they are well known, but his present roster is quite an achievement as well. While he has seen stallions move up and on, he has maintained a strong roster and the prices are fair and competitive.

Stonewall Farm has the largest roster at seventeen and appears fearless at entertaining thoughts of gaining more. To the credit of Vinery (Pomeroy), Stonewall (Leroidesanimaux), Ocala Stud (High Cotton – booked full), Journeyman Stud (Wildcat Heir), and Hartley DeRenzo (With Distinction), they have kept their “Big Guns” in Florida despite the downward drift of what the industry is doing in the Sunshine State. If nothing else, there is a glimmer of optimism in the breeding shed buzz along with the addition of two new stallion sheds (Cloverleaf returns and Northwest Stud emerges).

The long and tedious conflict within the FTBOA between the membership and board members will no doubt have its toll on some stallion sheds if word on the street is an indicator. The membership’s demand for transparency and efficiency and a revamp of the voting process remains to be answered.

Newly elected FTBOA president Phil Matthews has been busy seeking input in an effort to find middle ground between the FTBOA membership and the grip that some board members hold on the way the organization is run. Not an easy task, but one he is equal to. The “lynch-pin” is the revamping of the election process and the abandonment of the “proxy” ballot that the majority of the members feel is simply a way to stack the elections. Time to pull in the same direction? Start here!